New South Wales

Dr Frank Gelber: Private Investment: Recovery or Razorblades – the damage done by the GFC


From: Wednesday August 3, 2011, 12:00 am

To: Wednesday August 3, 2011, 12:00 am

·         When will private investment recover? And how strongly? ·         Will it come through in time to fill the gap left as government investment contracts? ·         Has the GFC moderated the cyclicality of commercial property markets, or has it set up the next boom? ·         Can residential markets recover in the face of rising interest rates? Or are the prophets of doom right? ·         What will be the impact of the resources boom? And what happens when it ends? ·         How will investment cycles play out? ·         What will be the impact on construction? And on the economy?   Frank Gelber is the Chief Economist at BIS Shrapnel. He has been for decades. Frank is a forecaster. He has forecast and tracked many cycles in his time. This is another of them. He talks about prospects for the economy and property markets. The focus is on the medium term rather than the short term. His objective is to understand whether activity is sustainable. In a cyclical environment, the task is to predict turning points & risk, to understand how markets will develop on the logic of the players, and how market logic will change as circumstances and perceptions evolve. The aim is to know how markets will change in plenty of time to prepare, to avoid mistakes and to position into opportunities.



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