New South Wales

Cohort effects on the need for health care and implications for health care planning


From: Wednesday June 27, 2018, 3:30 pm

To: Wednesday June 27, 2018, 5:00 pm

CHERE is delighted to welcome Professor Stephen Birch to present a seminar on a new approach to estimating future health care requirements. All are welcome, and afternoon tea will be provided.

Abstract: Sustainability of publicly-funded health care systems concerns governments worldwide as health care absorbs increasing shares of public funds and GDP. Planning future requirements for health care services, providers and funding is typically based on applying current supply by age to demographic population projections. Temporal changes in age-specific health undermine this ‘constant use by age’ assumption and drive expenditure increases. An approach to estimating future health care requirements is presented incorporating cohort trends in health. Although overall health care requirements increase as the size and mean age of the population increase, these effects are mitigated substantially by cohort trends in health. 

Speaker: Professor Stephen Birch - Professor and director of the Centre for the Business and Economics of Health at the University of Queensland.  He received a doctorate from University of York, UK in 1988. He was professor at the Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis at McMaster University, Canada until 2018. He holds a part-time chair in health economics at the University of Manchester, UK, and is senior scientist at the WHO Collaborating Centre for Health Human Resources at Dalhousie University, Canada. He has held visiting appointments at Universities in Sydney, Australia, Cape Town, South Africa, Toronto, Canada and Malmo, Sweden. He served as senior editor Social Science & Medicine for 15 years.

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Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation,

UTS, Haymarket, , Sydney NSW 2000

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