Consequences for land transport of COVID 19 and Work from Home

Commuting mode choice and work from home in the later stages of COVID-19:
Consolidating a future focused prediction tool to inform transport and land use planning.

As COVID-19 slowly dissipated, working from home (WFH) continues to be popular, with support from notable numbers of employees and employers. With growing evidence that we have either reached, or appear to be close to, a level of WFH to some extent that might be described as an equilibrium outcome going forward, we need to update any travel behaviour response models that have been developed during the passage of the pandemic.

This talk sets out a commuter model for each day of the week for the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area as of September 2022 where the alternative responses are to not work, WFH, or commute by one of ten modes available. Given the probability of WFH obtained from a mixed logit model, we construct a mapping equation to establish the sources of statistical variance by origin and destination location that influence the incidence of WFH.

The evidence is used as the basis of commenting on what this means for longer-term structural changes on network performance, the likely move to a greater focus on living locally, and the need or otherwise for employers to retain office space. A significant return to the office has recently been promoted by some employers, and we comment on this as to what it might mean for the future of a hybrid working location model.

This event is a hybrid event and be attended in-person or virtually.

About the Speaker

David Hensher, PhD, is Professor of Management and Founding Director of the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS). In January 2023, David was appointed a Member (AM) of the Order of Australia (OA). David has numerous Australian and International awards including a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia (FASSA), Recipient of the 2009 International Association of Travel Behaviour Research Lifetime Achievement Award, 2006 Engineers Australia Transport Medal the 2009 Bus NSW Outstanding Contribution to Industry Award and the 2019 John Shaw Medal which honours an industry champion who has made a lasting contribution to Australia's roads. In 2021 an annual prize was established and named in honour of David for best paper in transport demand modelling at the Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF). 

In January A Director of Volvo Educational and Research Foundation (VREF) Centre of Excellence in Bus Rapid Transit (2010 onwards), Emeritus Member of Singapore Land Transport Authority International Advisory Panel 2007-2010 (Chaired by Minister of Transport), Honorary Fellow Singapore Land Transport Authority (LTA) Academy, and Co-Founder of The International Conference in Competition and Ownership of Land Passenger Transport (the Thredbo Series http://www.thredbo-conference-series.org/), now in its 32^nd year. He has published over 750 papers in the leading international transport and economics journals as well as 17 books and is Australia’s most cited transport academic. David has over 73,000 citations of his contributions in Google Scholar.

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